Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 80282.616550 84777.161407 89274.463230 94109.017325 99155.914751 104265.857822 109827.529133
2025-11-30 73317.589097 80206.804989 87295.703247 95125.503573 103521.336361 112244.014730 121981.483744
2025-12-07 68291.182519 76821.773708 85794.402903 95915.590790 106994.408344 118732.395288 132088.519191
2025-12-14 63894.765520 73595.311674 83989.086186 95921.426471 109207.758308 123513.325667 140046.499081
2025-12-21 60467.139914 71106.650901 82692.296365 96197.451863 111457.870578 128117.020937 147626.802780
2025-12-28 58305.643062 69835.134959 82570.217889 97615.111013 114834.551216 133857.965075 156391.950069
2026-01-04 56212.871196 68482.657878 82214.961518 98638.228959 117656.244073 138895.474869 164314.532639
2026-01-11 54147.327987 67030.076660 81627.534851 99286.575341 119958.733102 143277.548401 171451.046825
2026-01-18 52021.857840 65391.807358 80720.732396 99467.246411 121638.454689 146884.661342 177658.478087
2026-01-25 50133.675818 63941.019318 79948.973686 99727.492575 123345.277885 150476.206782 183821.545845
2026-02-01 48231.423042 62387.164799 78976.840214 99677.045710 124624.108758 153523.388936 189321.875443
2026-02-08 47023.857730 61621.537759 78899.830063 100655.041511 127095.106145 157958.643084 196463.426223
2026-02-15 45323.516260 60200.702194 77991.765737 100602.364265 128320.523826 160929.745223 201908.867207
2026-02-22 44440.366997 59761.587429 78256.402417 101961.434600 131249.622861 165949.758012 209842.318669
2026-03-01 43392.414322 59070.344549 78171.925575 102859.583337 133596.740396 170265.323473 216943.916859
2026-03-08 41990.463868 57876.506317 77414.265649 102879.074338 134829.478815 173209.662787 222379.015062
2026-03-15 40799.610568 56910.756808 76904.612374 103174.256501 136377.573836 176525.164959 228269.468895
2026-03-22 40227.991177 56723.791875 77362.318635 104676.092716 139427.649805 181694.630223 236464.258074
2026-03-29 39504.342960 56308.894230 77505.068751 105759.511453 141943.665540 186209.038115 243873.067564
2026-04-05 38646.830067 55686.593527 77354.602730 106445.954633 143944.677557 190082.590651 250501.750317
2026-04-12 37621.484270 54807.135705 76840.638833 106637.231909 145296.341350 193136.509543 256113.689453
2026-04-19 36680.041028 54011.161469 76409.473611 106912.741733 146739.471159 196299.247202 261870.080165
2026-04-26 35648.058843 53061.066435 75746.728579 106859.337247 147738.772867 198891.005891 266909.003289